My thoughts on the US Presidential Race

My thoughts on the US Presidential Race

I started writing about US politics in November of 2006 when it was obvious that change was occurring in the United States. Joe Lieberman lost the Democratic nominee to anti war democrat Ned Lamont. Democrats had just won the Senate and Congress in the November 2006 elections. Donald Rumsfeld resigned as Secretary of Defense. The public had turned against the Iraq war, president Bush and the Republican Party. On January 20 2007, Hillary Clinton entered the 2008 race days after Barack Obama. The following month John McCain would announce his intentions to run in 2008 and so would kick off the longest Presidential race in the history of the United States. By the time Iowa and New Hampshire came, George W. Bush was a lame duck and the world and America was fully focused on exciting races on both the Republican and Democratic side. This week politics in the United States invaded Canadian politics and for the first time Canadians really began to focus on what the next President of the United States would mean for our country.

As the world's super power, Americans have a responsibility that no other country can relate to. When Americans vote, they must consider domestic issues and their own lives as individuals and families. They must also think about keeping America safe. Finally they must realize that their vote has an impact on other nations beyond America. In Canada, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama's promises to renegotiate NAFTA will obviously have an impact on the Canadian and Mexican economies. Canada is currently asking NATO to provide additional troops to the combat areas of Afghanistan in order to be successful in our mission there. Obama's promise to pull troops out of Iraq while providing an additional 15,000 troops to Afghanistan would have a major impact on Canada's role there. John McCain, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama all seem to be willing to enter into an international agreement on climate change. Nothing will be accomplished on the global warming file without the cooperation of the United States, China and India as well as the Western and developing worlds. The state of the US economy and potential recession threatens economies all over the world in this increasingly integrated and global economy. Canada, and Ontario in particular are vulnerable to downturns South of the border. Protectionist policies, campaigns and trends in the United States could have a major impact in Canada if they become reality when the candidate reaches the White House. Obviously American foreign policy has an impact on the Canada, Mexico, EU, Russia, South America, Cuba, Africa, China, Middle East, Israel, North Korea, India and Pakistan. The world is watching, has a stake and realize that this election has an impact on all of our lives as well. Having said that, it is fully up to Americans who they chose as their next leader. Regardless of who American's elect, Canada has a duty to work with that President and preserve the strong relationship that exists between our two nations.

Nafta-gate:

This week, Canada played a role in the primaries of Ohio and Texas. It appears that a senior economic adviser to the Obama campaign approached the Canadian embassy and gave the wink to the Canadian government that campaign language about NAFTA should be considered nothing more than political positioning. Stephen Harper's chief of staff Ian Brodie was fingered in an initial leak that seemed to imply that Clinton's team also gave the Canadian government the heads up. CTV would run a story that would be initially denied by the Obama camp. Later a memo, apparently sent to 150 people in Canada was leaked to the American media with Clinton using it to campaign down the stretch leading up to Ohio and Texas. Clinton was successful in portraying Obama as a typical politician while at the same time accusing him of telling on thing to the Canadians and another thing to American voters. Polls were close in both Texas and Ohio. Following this story hitting US media airwaves, Obama was defeated easily in Ohio, a state suffering from tough economic times and blaming trade agreements such as NAFTA for manufacturing job losses and housing foreclosures in the state. Stephen Harper apologized and called the allegations unfair against Obama and vowed to find the source of the memo leak. Jack Layton got himself on Lou Dobbs and inserted himself into American politics following his questions to Harper during Question Period. The question and Harper's apology would make it into American news cycles and also Obama's website. Accusations began to fly that Canada's "right wing" government was inserting itself into the American primaries either to help their Republican friends or Hillary Clinton. Harper must now decide what to do with Ian Brodie, under fire for what seems to be an honest slip of the tongue. He must now also go out of his way to make sure relations with the United States are not damaged in the event Obama or Clinton take power. Although the American election hit us with full force this week, the build up has been coming for quite some time.

Republicans:

The Republican race was as dynamic as the Democratic one now initially. Initially there were rumors of people like Condoleeza Rice, Chuck Hagel, Colin Powell, Newt Gingrich and Jeb Bush entering the race. Ultimately Tommy Thompson, Jim Gilmore, Duncan Hunter, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul would all put forward their names as candidates. Republicans looking to reunite the so called Reagan coalition would fail to find a candidate that the party could easily unite behind. In the end it would come down to Fred Thompson, Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, Ron Paul and John McCain. Fred Thompson entered the race late and never really captured any momentum after announcing his candidacy. Some said he ran a lazy campaign that ended in South Carolina where he delivered his best speech. Speaking of running lazy campaigns, Giuliani who for over a year seemed like the inevitable front runner chose not to compete in the early primaries with talk of the end of his campaign occurring before votes were cast in Florida, a basket he put all his eggs in. Mitt Romney invested a lot of his own money in the campaign and attempted to position himself as the Conservative alternative to McCain and Giuliani. He later found himself changing his positions and splitting the vote with Mike Huckabee who had the solid support of Evangelicals. Romney also faced opposition to his religious beliefs. Mike Huckabee turned out to be a likable guy to many people and also earned the support of social Conservatives. In the end he would face McCain head to head, but it was too late. Huckabee presented a solid Conservative alternative to McCain and had the radio talk show hosts and pundits on his side. He won a few states but in the end McCain was too close in securing the delegates required to win the nomination. Ron Paul presented some great ideas, a clear message, an enthusiastic young support base and raised a tonne of cash over the internet, yet he never broke out as a serious mainstream candidate. For John McCain, this was an unbelievable come back. When the surge and the war were looking bad, McCain was tied to that while also on the wrong side of the immigration debate within his party. His campaign was running out of money. People were being fired and working without pay. Then in New Hampshire he was able to win due to independents. He won South Carolina on his military record. He beat Romney in Florida with the endorsement of Charlie Crisp. He took large states like California and New York on Super Tuesday. He won Texas and Ohio clinching the nomination officially. Since winning, he has taken a lot of heat from within his own party. Ron Paul is still in the race, but it is unclear what he and his supporters plan to do now that the nomination has been officially clinched. This week, we slowly began to see Republicans rally behind their leader and speak with a common message against the Democrats.

With the Republican race settled and a entertaining fight on the Democratic side likely to last until the convention, John McCain has a potential advantage during this time period. He knows Michael Bloomberg is not going to make an independent run that might shift votes away from him and he can encourage someone like Ron Paul to stay out of the race as well. He can seek to make peace with the other Republican candidates and maximize his ability to build organizations in every region in the country. He can reach out to the radio talk show hosts, pundits, Evangelicals and Conservatives unhappy with his leadership. He can use President Bush and this time to raise money and build unity within the party. He can test drive his messages and push legislation in the Senate. He can attack Democrats instead of facing attacks from within his own party. He can study the economy - a weak area for him that will be important in November. He can travel to other countries, comment on world affairs, meet leaders and be seen as playing a role in the White House with Bush. The first problem he faces is how does he stay in the news with all of the attention the Democratic race will get. The second problem is how does he reach out to Conservatives, work with George W. Bush, unite a fractured party, build excitement on the same level as Democrats and maintain his appeal to moderates and independents? The third problem is that he has to prepare for two different campaigns, one against Hillary Clinton and one against Barack Obama. The theme of Hillary's campaign, McCain will be paying close attention to in preparation against Obama. On the Democrat side it is looking more and more like a Hillary/Obama ticket with it being unclear who will be at the top. Who McCain picks as VP will be a huge statement. Rice? Lieberman? Powell? Huckabee? Romney? Giuliani? Paul? Hagel? Thompson? Crisp? Who he selects will determine if he is trying to match gender/race, appease evangelicals, address the economy, run on Bush's record, appeal to independents and moderate Democrats or groom a successor in the VP role to address age. Right now it is likely we know 3/4 of the players that will be on the November ticket. I think Mitt Romney might be a strong choice to address the economy, a crucial issue in November. Condi Rice would be a strong choice as well to be groomed as successor and counter some of the Obama/Hillary excitement in November. The negative is that she is tied very close to Bush and would make it impossible for McCain to distance himself from that record and perception of giving the current President a third term. Potential names that have come up in the media include Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, Florida governor Charlie Crist, John Huntsman of Utah, Mark Sanford of South Carolina, Georgia governor Sonny Perdue, Tom Ridge, Mitt Romney, Rob Portman of Ohio, Securities and Exchange commission chairman Chris Cox, former New York city mayor Rudy Giuliani and current New York city mayor Michael Bloomberg. It is unclear when McCain will name his VP. My money is on Mitt Romney in the end.

Democrats:

On the Democratic side there was also not shortage of quality candidates at the beginning. After winning an Oscar and Nobel Peace Prize, people wanted to see environmentalist Al Gore get into the race. At all costs they wanted to see Green Party leader Ralph Nader stay out of the race after costing Gore in 2000. Despite those hopes Ralph Nader recently entered the race and risks being a factor in a tight race between McCain and Hillary/Obama. Dennis Kucinich, Tom Gavel, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Bill Richardson were never able to break into the mainstream despite their solid credentials. John Edwards would stay on until South Carolina, but failed to counter the media attention of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. To date, him and Al Gore have not endorsed a candidate and may play a uniter role at the convention. Once Edwards dropped out, an exciting head to head race began between Obama and Hillary Clinton. Obama captured the imagination of the youth vote and pulled off a huge victory in Iowa. After a near death experience, Hillary would rise from the ashes in New Hampshire. The race really became close after Obama won in South Carolina and Bill Clinton made controversial remarks comparing Obama to Jessie Jackson. The race became controversial when Hillary won Michigan and Florida in uncontested races, both Michigan and Florida had their delegates disqualified because the governors in each state moved their primaries up before Super Tuesday. After Super Tuesday there was still no decision as delegates and states were split. Obama won more states, Clinton won the larger ones. Obama would then win 11 states in a row only to be stopped in Ohio and Texas where Hillary would again survive another near campaign death experience. Obama then reversed the momentum with a win in Wyoming and likely will win Tuesday in Mississippi. This will give Obama the crucial delegate lead going into Pennsylvania where this race could again be decided with an Obama win. Currently Clinton is favored in Pennsylvania with only a few small states to go after that. If Clinton wins Pennsylvania, this race will likely go undecided into the Democratic National Convention on August 25, 2008 where the super delegates will determine the winner. There is also the question of Michigan and Florida and what should happen with their delegates. If there is a re-vote who should pay for it? Is it fair to change the rules in the middle of a contest when these two states were aware of the consequences when they moved up their primaries? Can the Democrats anger Florida and Michigan, two swing states in the general election? Will the party stay united after the convention and nominee is chosen? All of these questions will have to be factored into the democratic campaign over the next few weeks and months. How nasty can a race this close get? We will find that out as well.

One positive we are seeing is comments from Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton that seem to indicate Barack Obama would be offered the role of VP should Hillary win the nomination. I also think there will now be a lot of pressure on Obama to reach out to Hillary as his VP in the event he wins the nomination. A fair way to break the dead lock may be for super delegates to vote for the candidate with more pledged candidates going into the convention on the condition they pick the other as VP. Depending how Michigan and Florida are handled, this may be the best way to break the deadlock and maintain the unity and excitement going into the November general election. There is a lot of time between now and April 22 when Pennsylvania votes. If Obama can use that time to pull out a win, that would be the most decisive and clean way to win this whole thing. Overall we are looking at an Obama/Hillary ticket come November. I think because of the math, Obama is going to end up with a close win to be on top of that ticket. Obama/Hillary is the dream ticket many Democrats want to see. In the Democratic Party the issue has always been how do I chose between two good candidates as oppose to Republicans who were having trouble finding one they could really get behind. In polls, an Obama vs. McCain election would have Obama winning by 12 points. Clinton would defeat McCain by 6 points in the same poll. Several polls have shown that Obama would do better against McCain in a general election. An Obama vs. McCain contest would be interesting as both candidates have cross party appeal and are popular among independents and moderates. It would also be a great generational battle with almost 30 years separating the two.


General election issues:

Issues that I think will dominate the campaign in November:

1, The economy & recession
2, Iraq war & National security
3, Health care
4, Imigration
5, Supreme Court Appointments
6, Taxes
7, NAFTA and global trade
8, Alternative Energy
9, War on terror
10, Environment

Of course any foreign policy development or unexpected domestic issue could change the context of the campaign. Overall change is going to be the dominant theme in the November election. Democrats are sure to control the Congress and Senate following the November 2008 elections. If Obama and Clinton can keep their campaign civil and the party united, the White House would be Democrats to lose come the general election. The race between Obama and Clinton will likely determine the next President of the United States. Opposition to the Iraq war, the economy, the record of George W. Bush, and demands for change will be too much for McCain to overcome against a Hillary/Obama ticket unless he can get national security to be the ballot box issue.

Implications for Canada:

At this point all Canada and the world can do is wait and see who America decides to elect President in 2008. If it is John McCain, we are looking at the status quo. If it is Barack Obama there will be a major change in foreign policy and domestic issues in the United States. If it is Hillary, change will occur in the middle between Obama and McCain. It will be interesting to see if a Canadian election takes place before America picks a new president of after. It will also be interesting to see if America's election campaign plays any type of role in the Canadian campaign. Prime Minister Harper needs to be ready to work well with any one of John McCain, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Each of these candidates would have implications on the Canadian economy and foreign policy.

My opinion:

I am rooting for Obama and hoping for a Obama/Clinton ticket in November. With Ron Paul out of the race, there is no question I am supporting the Democratic Party. I also think an Obama presidency would improve Conservative chances for a majority government in Canada. I look forward to the first North American summit where President Obama meets Prime Minister Harper. Hopefully this will be a reality in 2009! No matter what happens there will be an improvement over George W. Bush - the worst American president in the history of their great nation.

Thanks for reading...

Darryl