Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Polls open in Kentucky and Oregon:

Polls open in Kentucky and Oregon:

Not sure how much longer Clinton is going to drag this thing on. Clearly the press has moved to Obama vs. McCain set for this November. Obama will be speaking in Iowa tonight while Clinton will speak from Kentucky. Regardless of what the results are tonight, expect this contest to finish out on June 3, the date of the last primary. Expect a Clinton win in Kentucky and an Obama win in Oregon.

For full results: http://www.cnn.com/politics

-Darryl

Oregon Primary Could Shape Race




Clinton Favored As Kentucky Heads to Polls



Obama poised to gain delegate majority

  • Story Highlights
  • Sen. Barack Obama needs 15 delegates to capture majority of pledged delegates
  • CNN's "poll of polls" favors Sen. Hillary Clinton in Kentucky
  • Obama has the advantage in Oregon, surveys show
  • Obama has been careful not to declare victory in Democratic contest


(CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama is expected to take a majority of the pledged delegates in the Democratic race after primary voters weigh in Tuesday in Kentucky and Oregon.

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Sen. Barack Obama campaigns Monday in Montana, while Sen. Hillary Clinton seeks votes in Kentucky.

Obama's campaign sees the two contests as a milestone in the protracted fight for the Democratic presidential nomination with Sen. Hillary Clinton, who continues to campaign hard.

There are 3,253 pledged delegates, and Obama, even with a poor showing Tuesday, should easily top the 1,627 delegates needed to gain a majority.

A candidate needs 2,026 delegates to win the Democratic nomination. Going into Tuesday races, Obama has 1,909 delegates, while Clinton has 1,718.

The Kentucky and Oregon primaries hold 103 delegates combined. Obama needs 15 more to achieve a majority of the pledged delegates -- the delegates won either in state caucuses or primaries.

Clinton appears to be the overwhelming favorite in Kentucky. CNN's "poll of polls," which averages the latest public opinion surveys in the state, suggests the senator from New York leads Obama by 30 percentage points. The last polls in Kentucky close at 7 p.m. ET.

Obama is the favorite in Oregon, where a CNN poll of polls indicates he has a lead of 10 percentage points. Oregon's primary is a mail-in only contest, which means voters must mail in or hand in their ballots in person by 8 p.m. PT (11 p.m. ET). I-Reporters: Send us your voting experiences

Both Kentucky and Oregon's primaries are closed, so only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic contests.

Primary Coverage
Join CNN's Wolf Blitzer and the best political team on TV for complete coverage of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries.
Tonight, 7 ET

"We still have some contests left, but if Kentucky and Oregon go as we hope, then we think we will have a majority of pledged delegates at that point, and that's a pretty significant mark," Obama told supporters at a rally Sunday in Oregon.

"That means that after contests in every state, or almost every state and the territories, that we have received the majority of the delegates that are assigned by voters."

Obama also leads Clinton in the number of states won and in the popular vote in the primary and caucus contests so far this campaign season.

Obama has been careful not to declare victory in the Democratic contest, but he has focused much of his attention in recent weeks on Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Video Watch an analysis of the Obama-McCain dispute on Iran »

Obama doesn't have enough delegates to capture the nomination outright; Clinton still has a chance, if a slight one, to win the nomination if enough of the roughly 800 superdelegates were to back her.

Superdelegates are elected and party officials who have votes at the national convention. They are not bound by the primary or caucus results from the states they represent.

If the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination is almost over, Clinton isn't acting like it.

"I'm going to make [my case] until we have a nominee, but we're not going to have one today, and we're not going to have one tomorrow and we're not going to have one the next day," Clinton said Monday in Kentucky.

She argues that she leads in the popular vote. "Right now, more people have voted for me than have voted for my opponent," she said. "More people have voted for me than for anybody ever running for president before. So we have a very close contest."

But her argument is debatable. For Clinton to claim such a lead, primary states but not caucus states -- which Obama mostly won -- would only be counted, plus the popular vote totals in Florida and Michigan.

Florida and Michigan were stripped of their delegates for scheduling their primaries too early, in violation of Democratic Party rules. Obama's name wasn't on the Michigan ballot, and he received no votes in that state's contest.

Clinton also argues that she's won the states that she contends would stack up stronger against McCain in the general election.

"The states I've won total 300 electoral votes. If we had the same rules as the Republicans, I would be nominee right now," she said. "We have different rules, so what we've got to figure out is who can win 270 electoral votes. My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes."

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