Canadian Opposition: Divided on the left





Canadian Opposition: Divided on the left
Update: Today the Toronto Star has published a poll that shows Liberal numbers and Dion's approval rating at all time lows. Currently 11% approve of Dion's leadership. Dion's momentum score is at the lowest level seen for an opposition leader in Canadian history. 9% think Dion would make the best Prime Minister. Nationally the Conservatives have a 10 point lead on the Liberals but are at 36%, just shy of majority territory. Harper's approval rating is 33%. Where this Angus Read poll gets interesting is the regional breakdown.
Ontario: CPC 35, Lib 35, NDP 21, Green 8
BC: CPC 39, Lib 24, NDP 19, Green 16
Alberta CPC 63, Lib 15, NDP 11, Green 11
Man/Sask CPC 46, Lib 26, NDP 22, Green 6
Atlantic Canada CPC 35, Lib 28, NDP 33, Green 4
Quebec CPC 26, Lib 21, NDP 10, Bloc 36, Green 6
Overall good numbers well before a campaign is actually under way. As far as I am concerned, these numbers will only get better for Conservatives as Canadians are forced to focus on the day to day campaign and also the contrast in leadership between Dion and Harper. This poll also confirms that May made a major mistake not seeking a seat in BC. Currently the Greens are at 16% support in the province contrasted with 4% in Nova Scotia where she is running against Peter MacKay. The tie at 35% also confirms some of my arguments about Liberal support congested in Toronto with seats everywhere else in the province ripe for the taking.
-Darryl
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It is hard to believe that just 5 years ago, us Conservatives were divided into two parties. The Canadian Alliance/Reform and the Progressive Conservatives both had volunteers, MPs, fundraisers, and voters who would support the right of center cause; but knew based on vote splitting that there was no chance that Canada would ever elect a right of center government. Ridings such as my own in York North (now Newmarket-Aurora) always saw a Liberal get elected with the combined total of the PC and Alliance vote greater than that of in our case Karen Kraft Sloan. Everyone agreed that the right should unite, but for years it couldn't be figured out how. In December 2003, Conservatives put their ideological differences on the backburner, and together as a united and disciplined party we took the Liberals to minority status in 2004 and eventually minority government in 2006. After 2 years in power, the Conservative Party is on the cusp of majority government that would comple the merger and the dream of a right of center government in Canada. Not long ago, it looked like Paul Martin was going to be Prime Minister for a long time while the right continued to fight each other. The merger and the sponsorship scandal quickly changed the landscape in this country, and right now the left wing opposition of the NDP, Bloc, Green and now Dion's Liberals have failed to recognize and adapt to this new reality. Fortunately, it is much more difficult to unite the left in the same manner that the Alliance/PC merged in 2003. Here is a quick look at the state of the Conservative opposition in this country.
The Liberal Party:
I posted yesterday about the state of the Liberal party of Toronto under Dion. Clearly it is becoming a regional party with its last remaining strong holds in Montreal, Vancouver and Toronto. Virtually all of the top Liberal talent is from Toronto and the GTA. Recent by-elections in Outremont and Vancouver Quadra demonstrated that even Liberal seats in Vancouver and Montreal could be vulnerable. Because of the Liberal talent in Toronto and I would argue the Toronto Star newspaper that publishes editorials such as todays, Liberal Ontario based support is congested in Toronto but bleeding in virtually every other part of the nation and province. I proposed a possible breakthrough of 30+ seats that could result in a Conservative majority without winning a seat in the 416. The post was a reaction to the Quebec polls that recently came out and the fact that Dion is facing a revolt within his own caucus and certainly among the grassroots, especially in Quebec. Today in the Hill Times we saw that 2/3 of the Liberal caucus wants an election right now. This number must be high because of the party's declining credibility as they abstain and no show for work, a reflection that they believe their own seats could be in danger if things get much worse and obviously it presents an opportunity to dump Dion as leader and replace him with someone else long before their previous leadership debts are paid off. The Liberal arrogance of believing they are Canada's natural governing party has resulted in a lack of platform, ideas, vision and leadership associated with the Liberal party. The grassroots troops are demoralized. Appointments and deals such as the one with Elizabeth May have not helped the party staff connect with the people on the ground. Overall there is a lack of enthusiasm among Liberals and this is having an impact on finances, volunteers, organization, policy and of course the polls for the party. They are almost extinct in Alberta and francophone Quebec, endangered in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and holding on for dear life in Ontario, BC and Atlantic Canada. Worse they are stuck in a position where they have to abstain and abandon their values and principles to the left opposition or they must trigger an election they cannot win at this point in time. This makes Dion look weak, local Liberals MPs look ineffective in representing their ridings and this also takes away the argument that Harper has a scary right wing agenda and people should vote strategically against him. Liberals have voted 60% of the time with the Conservative government and abstained or now showed almost 40% of the time, less than voter turnout in the last election.
In Montreal at the Liberal leadership convention, Stephane Dion arrived with less than 20% support on the first ballot. Michael Ignatieff who had supported the Iraq war and Afghanistan extension was seen as representing the right of the party. Bob Rae the former NDP Premier with a poor economic record in Ontario represented the left wing choice. Kennedy and Findlay would eventually go to Stephane Dion as would Ken Dryden. Bob Rae was eliminated and Ignatieff failed to grow above 50% of the delegates. After several rounds Dion won barely with no delegates from Quebec. His win was seen as a miracle and his performance thus far has been universally declared a disaster. Liberal Quebec was concerned the clarity act combined with the scandal would reduce them to 5 seats. Following the second place finish of Elizabeth May in the London by-election, Dion jumped on the Green bandwagon and based his campaign in Montreal on giving away green scarves. He was a former environment minister with a dog named Kyoto. The Al Gore movie had put climate change on the front pages at the time. The three pillar approach seemed to move the party to the left or back to the glorious Chretien days of the party's past. In the end a green wave would sweep Dion to the leadership, but like on St. Patrick's Day, it comes with a massive handover.
To win, Liberals have to get back some of that Conservative vote they lost in 2004 and 2006. Despite this reality, they seem to be looking left with strategic voting from the NDP and an alliance with the Greens that is unhelpful to both sides. Liberals want to be greener than the Greens, more socialist than the NDP while at the same time telling "Progressive Conservatives" there is a home for them in their party. When your all things to all people in opposition, your message becomes unclear and it becomes obvious that you stand for nothing. Waiting for the economy to tank or Stephen Harper to screw up while propping up a Conservative agenda is not a strategy that is going to fire up the base or the voters. Again, Dion has fallen into the trap of talking tough only to back down later. Does he ever learn?
In the Liberals do finally take a stand and we have an election, it is unclear who on the left would gain. Right now they are trying to market the fact that they have the better "team". Half way through the next election I bet all of that dream team will be campaigning in their own ridings as the next leader of the Liberal Party. Liberal right leaning votes and centrist swing voters are the key to a Conservative majority along with falling BQ support.
Green Party:
Under the leadership of Jim Harris, the Green Party seemed to be on the right track of moving the party away from a single issue party and into a new option with a broad platform and 308 candidates running in the country. They used tax shifting to appeal to the right and make the argument that they didn't fit anywhere on the spectrum. That idea would later be implemented in BC. They earned protest votes during the time of the sponsorship scandal when trust for all politicians was down. They began to speak up on a variety of issues and started getting media. A campaign was underway to get the Green leader into the federal televised debates. They were on the rise and the issue of the environment was becoming more important to voters. After the 2006 election, Jim Harris stepped aside and there were high hopes the profile of Elizabeth May would take the party to the next level.
So far Elizabeth May has been a mixed bag. Her deal with Dion was a huge mistake. One it tied her to his popularity. Two it tied her to his environmental record. Three it tied her to politics as usual as oppose to something different. It took away the argument that they were running candidates in 308 ridings. It resulted in awkward situations such as St. Catherines where the Green riding association was considering endorsing the local Liberal. I think the deal benefited May personally but did her party a disservice. I also think it has hurt her chances of getting into the leadership debates among the major networks. Finally the decision of Elizabeth May to run against Peter MacKay as oppose to London where she ran during the by-election lacked sanity. Somewhere in British Columbia where prospects were higher also would have made sense.
I also think Elizabeth May has taken the party a step backwards in focusing only on the environment. The last thing they want to be seen as is a bunch of fringe environmentalists who cannot be taken seriously. While Green coverage has increased, I still do not think they are covered in the same volume as all the other major parties in the media right now. Without more media and debate exposure, Greens will not be able to grow much more than where they are at right now. Victory in the next election would either be a seat won, a massive vote increase, a spot in the TV debates or coverage on at least par with the NDP. Despite challenges created by the leadership, no one can argue that the Greens have become a factor in Canadian politics.
Most polls have Green support around 10% and usually close to tied nationally with the NDP and Bloc. The by-election in London earned Elizabeth May a second place finish. The Green vote soared in the Ontario provincial election where there was also a second place finish and several victories over the NDP. The most recent by-elections showed the Green vote increasing and in some cases beating the NDP in the cities of Toronto and Vancouver. While Greens argue their vote pulls from everyone, it seems more likely based on the results that it harms the Liberals and especially the NDP more than the government. The environment, urban, young and protest vote seems to be driving the growth of this party.
If the Green Party does well enough to split the left vote in areas where the Liberals and NDP are strong, this will only help Conservatives in the first past the post system, similar to what happened when the right was divided. In terms of merger, Dion and May have got the ball rolling but the grassroots on either side isn't interested. Greens are running and campaigning against Liberals as well as Conservatives. The purpose in the race isn't justified if they endorse one of the other parties. There is an opportunity right now for May to break her alliance with Dion, accuse him of not standing up for Kyoto and position herself as the only party serious about climate change. The Green "none of the above" appeal is perfect for Liberals lukewarm about the party under Dion's leadership. They should push for an election because they have the most to gain right now among opposition parties. Priority number one for the Greens should be a spot in the debates where they can introduce Canadians to their platform and communicate their unique message. I would not vote Green, but I would like to see them get a crack in the debates. If that happens, Elizabeth May is going to have to appear as more than Dion's candidate in Central Nova.
Bloc Quebecois:
Holding 48 seats in Quebec, almost all of them outside of Montreal; how Conservatives stack up against the Bloc will be crucial to their chances at a majority government. Prior to Dion's abstain policy, Duceppe was the leader representing the party that would prop up the Conservative government. Supporters began to ask why they would vote BQ when they could simply elect a member of the government who would bring something back to the riding. This triggered the Bloc to go into opposition mode and combined with the NDP set the trap for Dion's downfall. The reality though is outside the manufactured confidence of the BQ, the situation for the separatists is not optimal for them either.
In the province of Quebec, Pauline Marois asked party faithful to remove her obligation to hold a referendum in the event the PQ wins the next election. The motion passed, demonstrating that support for a separate Quebec state outside of Canada is on the decline. In fact the country has not been this united in decades. In the last election, the Conservative breakthrough around Quebec City of 10 seats was seen as a shock. Now the BQ fears that the Conservatives have the potential to duplicate what we saw in the provincial election with the ADQ and also provincial Charest Liberal ridings outside of Montreal. The Conservative Party is now the federalist option and is talking about open federalism, something that appeals more to Quebec than the Liberal Ottawa knows best big central government approach. In the last election there wasn't much alternative for Quebec voters angry about the sponsorship scandal beyond the Bloc. Now Conservatives have offered another opposition and the BQ finds themselves fighting for relevance during these political times.
If the Bloc vote completely collapses and goes Conservative, we could see a majority government formed regardless of what happens in Toronto. If the Bloc holds steady, we will likely be in for another minority. For Conservatives, the newest development of NDP votes bleeding the Bloc is also helpful to our chances in Quebec. This could very well be Duceppe's last election campaign with future prospects for the BQ not looking bright. There is no chance of a merger with the Bloc either for left leaning voters. The BQ is a separatist party and politically could not merge into a federalist party.
The NDP:
By all accounts, Jack Layton and the NDP should be gaining most from the Liberal collapse but he is not. The NDP is traditionally strong in areas such as Vancouver, Sask, Northern Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Toronto but is having a lot of trouble growing beyond the seats they hold right now. Toronto remains Liberal red with the Toronto Star actually critical of Layton for attacking Liberals as oppose to being critical of Dion for not attacking Conservatives. Saskatchewan's by-election was a terrible showing for Layton and the NDP almost lost to the Greens in every other by-election. As the official opposition relinquished its role to the NDP, Jack Layton found himself on Lou Dobbs and on Barack Obama's website but still didn't turn that into support in the polls or votes. They risk the Greens surpassing them in popular vote and have lost the protest vote. Feuds with the unions such as the CAW and Buzz Hargrove have also not been helpful. The two horse race between Conservatives and Liberals is squeezing them out of the picture and there remains a risk of strategic voting if it looks like the Conservatives are close to a majority during the campaign. Despite some worrying signs, Jack Layton seems determined to go to the polls and this time has Thomas Mulcair and momentum in Quebec on his side. He also can claim to be the only federalist opposition party willing to stand up for Harper and may use this argument as a way to prevent the bleeding of strategic votes. During this campaign Layton will try his best to displace the Liberal Party as the official opposition. What will most likely happen is that he will be fighting for his survival as leader and for the relevance of his party among the congested left of the Canadian spectrum. Next NDP leader Thomas Mulcair??? NDP pride and a belief that they stand for principle while Liberals campaign from the left and govern from the right will prevent a merger between the NDP and Liberals. Paul Martin - Buzz Hargrove - Jack Layton during the last Liberal budget was probably the closest you will ever see to a NDP/Liberal left wing merger.
Mood of the Canadian Public:
As the Liberals, NDP, Greens and Bloc fight for the left, Canadians seem to be moving to the right. In my next post I will talk about the issues of the day, and what I believe the Conservative Party needs to do in order to close the sale and take a majority in the next election. I will also talk about the Beijing Olympics, the American election and other issues that may not be on the radar now but could come up in the middle of a potential election campaign.
Thanks for reading...
Darryl

































