Dalton McGuinty Tries to Ram Through His $3 Billion HST Tax Grab Without Consulting the Public
Great video about the PC Caucus and their efforts to stop the HST
-Darryl
Did “Cheque Republic” campaign backfire on federal Liberals?
Today I came across a website affiliated with the federal Liberals at http://www.chequerepublic.ca
I haven’t seen the website before today, but it is loaded with Conservative MPs posing with cheques for their ridings complete with Conservative logos and personal signatures from the local MP. Obviously I see what the scandal is. Conservatives are handing out taxpayer money as if it comes from the party and not Canadians. Fair enough.
Under “Get the Facts” some of the messages
- “Last month, MP Gerard Kennedy led a Liberal investigation that found a disproportionate share of infrastructure stimulus funding was going to Conservative ridings.”
- “Investigative journalists at those newspapers found that nationwide 57 percent of all projects with more than $1-million in federal funding went to Conservative ridings. The investigation also found that Tory ridings landed 66 per cent of all projects so far announced under the Harper government’s Recreation Infrastructure Canada program (RinC). The investigation concludes that if you live in a Conservative riding, you’re receiving 23 percent more infrastructure stimulus funding than you would if project funding was distributed equally among all Canadian ridings.”
An entry in the Blog section of the website
- “Harper slush fund favours Conservative Northern Ontario ridings”
There is also an opportunity to cut a cheque to your friends from Stephen Harper and have it emailed to them (see photo above) explaining the issue to others.
I really do not know if Canada’s Economic Stimulus Package has been handed out on partisan grounds disproportionately to Conservative ridings. I really do not like pork barrel politics and free spending for partisan purposes. I do not know if these allegations are true. But let us assume for a second that these allegations are true. What does it mean for voters? Currently my riding is blue in Newmarket-Aurora. Assuming what the Liberals are saying is true, what incentive would I have to vote for the opposition so that Newmarket gets short changed like the other opposition held ridings as Liberals claim? By drawing so much attention to this “Cheque Republic” issue, are Liberals not encouraging opposition ridings to vote Conservative in order to get some pork for themselves? Could this partially explain rising poll numbers and the recent by-election results? Do Liberals really think Conservative held ridings are going to vote Liberal because their riding received an unfair proportion of stimulus money? From the Liberal point of view does it really benefit them to highlight this issue? Looking at current poll numbers and pundits calling for a Conservative majority in recent days, one has to wonder if areas like Atlantic Canada, Toronto, Northern Ontario and Montreal will be tempted to get on board the gravy train as well following the next election. If these allegations are true I will not try and justify them. Having said that, Liberals really need to think hard about if this campaign helps them politically or not. Perhaps it is something to think about when trying to explain the upset in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup.
Personally I am not sure if these allegations are true or not, but I am sure that the Cheque Republic backfired and Monday night was evidence of that. Perhaps the Liberal war room should go back to the drawing board and find something else to attack the Conservative government on.
Lest we Forget
Highway of Heroes by Bob Reid
Prime Minister Stephen Harper today issued the following statement to mark Remembrance Day:
“Across this great country, from our largest cities to our smallest communities, we are united in remembrance and gratitude. On this Remembrance Day, we pause to remember the courage and sacrifice of those Canadian soldiers, sailors, and airmen and airwomen who served to defend our nation and fight tyranny, injustice and terror.
“Canada is proud of its forces. The world has seen the bravery of our service men and women at Vimy Ridge, on Normandy beaches, in Korean hills and in countless other missions throughout the world. When the cause is just, Canada has always been there to defend freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.
“This is our heritage. It is a legacy handed down to us from those who sacrificed so much for our country, a legacy still carried on today by the brave Canadians serving in places such as Afghanistan.
“So, as we pause for a moment of silence this Remembrance Day, we ask ourselves, ‘How will I remember?’ We remember these brave Canadians by wearing a poppy over our hearts. We remember these brave Canadians by visiting our local cenotaph with our children and reflecting on the names etched in stone. We reflect on the fathers and mothers, husbands and wives, brothers and sisters who never returned home. We remember these brave Canadians by sending a message of support to those serving overseas.
“However we choose to remember, we must keep the torch of remembrance burning for future generations to come. Let us never forget these brave men and women whose sacrifice served to make life better for others. We must remember, not just today, but every day.
“Lest we forget.”
25 ridings the Conservatives should target for a Majority
After last night's by-election, the Conservatives now hold 145 seats in the House of Commons. Assuming that the Conservatives could hold all of them (and that is a big assumption), here is 20 ridings the Conservatives should target to win a majority. Right now 10 more would be required to win that majority government. Current polls have shown Tory support ranging from 37-41%. The percentage is important, but ultimately in Canadian politics it comes down to seats. These targeted seats assume no breakthrough in Toronto and Montreal. 17 of these seats are currently held by Liberals, 6 by the NDP, 1 by the Bloc and 1 is an independent. Obviously there are a lot of close ridings the Conservatives won as well.
If current polls hold and Conservative MPs ensure re-election, 10 out of 25 of these ridings would be a majority government. In 1984, Brian Mulroney won 211 seats and over 50% of the vote. Stephen Harper currently holds 145 seats our of 308.
North
1. Yukon
Conservative Darrell Pasloski lost by less than 2000 votes in the last election while turnout increased and the Liberal vote decreased. The seat is currently held by Liberal Larry Bagnell. If former Yukon Party Cabinet Minister Brad Cathers runs for the Tories, the race might be close. Harper has made a big push in the North since winning government. Hopefully some of that Palin magic in Alaska crosses the border and energizes Conservatives in Yukon as well.
2. Western Arctic
Currently held by NDP Dennis Bevington, this riding is very winnable for the Conservatives especially with Harper's focus on the North. Last time Bevington got 5669 votes compared to Conservative Brendan Bell's 5146. Liberals were a distant third with 1858 votes. This time former Premier Joe Handley is running for the Liberals potentially opening up a strong three way race.
BC
3. Burnaby - Douglas
Currently held by NDP Bill Siksay, in 2008 this election was close with the NDP getting 37.94% of the vote compared to the CPC 36.25% Who is able to take the more of the Liberal 19.4% could make the difference in this riding. Ronald Leung ran for the Conservatives in 2008.
4. Vancouver South
Former NDP Premier and Liberal Star candidate Ujjal Dosanjh only defeated the Conservatives by 22 votes in the last election. Wai Young represented the Conservatives in 2008.
5. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Keith Martin's riding. Last time he won by 68 votes against Conservative Troy DeSouza. Would love to see Martin cross the floor and get back in the fold. Otherwise this will likely be a close race again. Keith Martin was a former Reform/Canadian Alliance MP between 1993-2003 and is personally popular in his riding.
Alberta
6. Edmonton-Strathcona
NDP Linda Duncan upset Rahim Jaffer in the last election breaking up the Conservative Alberta sweep. Ryan Hastman will try and take it back in the next election. In 2008 the NDP took 42.5% of the vote compared to the Conservative 41.6%. Getting this riding back is probably priority one for the Conservatives.
Saskatchewan
7. Wascana
Ralph Goodale defeated Conservative Michelle Hunter by less than 5000 votes. Still a long shot, but this is the final red seat in the province. Goodale is winning this riding on personal popularity despite his party affiliation.
Manitoba:
8. Elmwood - Transcona
Winnipeg Jets legend Thomas Steen lost this riding by less than 2000 votes. NDP Jim Maloway is the incumbent here. Would love to see Steen take another shot at the goal.
9. Winnipeg South Centre
Conservatives held their convention in Winnipeg recently. Anita Neville won last time by less than 2000 votes and is the final Liberal in Manitoba. Trevor Kennerd ran for the Conservatives last time.
Ontario:
10. Ajax-Pickering:
Conservative star candidate Chris Alexander will face off against Mark Holland in the GTA. Will that be enough to make up the 3000 vote difference? This could be a huge win for the Conservatives in Ontario on the border of Toronto 416.
11. Brampton Springdale
Rudy Dhalla held this riding by just over 700 votes in 2008. She is a big target I am sure and Parm Gill has been working this riding like crazy. This riding is highly likely to go blue in the next election.
12: Brampton West
While everyone has been paying attention to Ruby Dhalla in Brampton Springdale, quietly Kyle Seeback was about 500 votes from Liberal MP Andrew Kania. This is probably even more likely to go blue than Brampton Springdale.
13. Richmond Hill
Conservatives made some big gains in the last election in York Region picking up Newmarket-Aurora, Oakridges-Markham and Thornhill. At one time this riding was represented provincially by Frank Klees and in 2008 the race was a lot closer with Liberal MP Bryon Wilfert fighting to keep his seat. A star candidate could easily close the 5000 vote margin here if current polls hold steady.
14. Mississauga South
Liberal MP Paul Szabo won by about 2000 votes in this GTA riding. Mississauga will be very competitive with the right Conservative candidates in the next election.
15. Welland
A rare tight three way battle where in the last election the NDP took 33% of the vote, Conservatives 32% and the Liberals 28%. NDP MPP Peter Kormos holds the seat provincially and NDP MP Malcolm Allenis the current incumbent.
16. Kingston and the Islands
If speaker Peter Milliken ever retired, this riding would go blue and is surrounded by blue. Like Wascana in Saskatchewan, Milliken is holding this riding on personal popularity.
17. Guelph
Liberal MP Frank Valeriote had 18,977 votes, CPC candidate Gloria Kovach won 17, 185 votes and Green candidate Mike Nagy finished third with 12,456 votes. The Green vote is the wildcard here.
18. Nipissing - Timiskaming
Northern Ontario should have strong potential for the Conservatives but right now it is largely dominated by the NDP. In Nipissing - Timiskaming Anthony Rota beat Conservative Joe Sinicrope by just over 5000 votes. In 2008 we saw an upset in Kenora. Is Nipissing - Timiskaming next? I believe Northern Ontario would be a good place to grow the Conservative base and build on our organizational strength. There is great potential for competitive three way races if time and resources are dedicated to the cause.
New Brunswick:
19. Moncton - Riverview - Dieppe
Current Liberal MP Brian Murphy beat Conservative Daniel Allain by just over 1000 votes. Closest riding in New Brunswick for the Conservatives to pick up.
Prince Edward Island:
20. Malpeque
1000 votes separated the Liberals and Conservatives last time. Wayne Easter would be a big target for Conservatives. Can Mike Duffy make the difference here? In 2008 Conservatives broke into PEI in the Egmont riding.
Newfoundland
21. Avalon 22. St. John's East 23. St. John's South-Mount Pearl
All three of these ridings were held by the Conservative Party and lost in the 2008 election. Is Danny Williams still a factor? Will Newfoundland want to be shut out of the federal government? St. John's South-Mount Pearl is the best chance. Turnout in the last election was low in Newfoundland despite the ABC campaign.
Quebec
24. Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
Would love to see independent MP Andre Arthur formally join the Conservative caucus. He generally votes with the party and in the last election Conservatives did not run a candidate against him. He is in a close race and his personality would be an asset to the Conservative cause in Quebec. Arthur is a libertarian.
25. Louis-Hébert
Conservative MP Luc Harvey dropped the seat to current Bloc MP Pascal-Pierre Paillé. Could the Conservatives win this one back?
By-election Analysis
Last night four by-elections took place in BC, Quebec and Nova Scotia. In general it is never a good idea to get too excited about by-election results, nonetheless they do mean something and can have large implications.
In March of 2009 in the riding of Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, John Tory was upset by Rick Johnson in a by-election in the province of Ontario. Tory had just come off of a strong convention, was PC Party leader and ran in a riding that was considered safe for the blue side following Laurie Scott's decision to step down to allow the leader a seat in the Legislature. Tory was defeated and resigned as leader the next day. Today Tim Hudak is party leader and a recent poll has his party leading in the Province of Ontario.
Federally in 2008 Rob Clarke won in Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River after local Liberals found themselves in a feud with David Orchard during the nomination process. In 2007 Thomas Mulcair pulled off an upset in Outremont and Denis Lebel won in Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean. All three still hold their seats today. Since the beginning of the 38th parliament in 2004, there have been ten by-elections federally. Only 3 or 30% changed party representation heading into last night. All MPs elected in by-elections since 2000 remain in the House of Commons today except Raymond Gravel a former Bloc MP. Some pundits think of by-elections as flash in the pan protest votes however vidence since 2004 shows that not to be the case. It is quite possible that all incumbents elected last night will hold their seats in the next general election whenever it occurs.
After last night there is spin coming from all sides but the results speak for themselves. The Conservatives picked up two seats and are now ten shy of a majority. The Bloc lost a seat and held another. The NDP held a seat in BC. The Liberals were not even in the game in any of these by-elections. Current standings have the Conservatives with 145 seats, Liberals 77, NDP 37 and Bloc 48. Andre Arthur is an independent but the Conservatives did not run a candidate against him in the 2008 election and he generally votes with the Conservatives as a self described libertarian. Following these by-elections only the Conservatives have gained seats and only the Bloc has lost a seat since the last general election. The Liberals and the NDP remain status quo.
In each of the ridings there was also some interesting messages. While results in New Westminster—Coquitlam, Hochelaga and Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley were widely expected, the upset in Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup is notable.
The fact the Liberals were not contenders in any of the by-elections and showed worse than Dion in three of the ridings has to be of concern to Liberal strategists. Clearly there is not much momentum for Ignatieff in BC despite the Liberal convention in Vancouver. The same can be said about Quebec where there was talk of big Liberal breakthroughs a few months ago. In Atlantic Canada - usually a considered a Liberal stronghold, the NDP finished second this time. The NDP also finished second in Montreal repeatng some of that Outremont magic. There is no way to spin that as positive for Liberals and there is a reason why Ignatieff, Kinsella and Liblogs have been silent today about these results. The NDP on the other hand have good reason to celebrate their results last night but let's not go to far. Even if they steal a few seats away from the Liberals in the next election, how satisified will the left be with a Conservative majority? Ten ridings is not that big of a hurdle now.
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup had not seen Conservative representation since 1993 when PC MP André Plourde was defeated by Paul Crête who resigned to run in the provincial electon only to be defeated by Charest Liberal Jean D'Amour in that contest. Prior to that former ADQ leader Mario Dumont represented the riding from 1994 until March of 2009. Personally I always wanted Dumont to run for the federal Conservatives, but yesterday a new star was found in former La Pocatière mayor Bernard Généreux who pulled off the upset. Pundits and polls dismissed the Conservatives in Quebec. The coalition, ADQ demise, culture cuts, relations with Charest, gun registry and economy all proved theories false that the Conservative support had NOT evaporated in the province. This type of rural Quebec riding is exactly the type of riding Tories need to target in order to build the coalition required for a majority. Harper now at least has hope for future Quebec gains. Despite writing Harper off, the BQ once again find themselves in a fight with the Conservatives in rural Quebec and Quebec City while at the same time they are fighting a different battle with the Liberals and NDP in the Montreal area of Quebec.
In the 2008 election in Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley, Bill Casey deserved to be re-elected for standing up for constituents despite being expelled from the Conservative caucus. I like MPs with courage and an independent streak. Having said that, it is great news that Conservative Rob Armstrong easily won the riding following Casey's decision to retire as an MP after former Nova Scotia Premier Rodney MacDonald announced that Casey would be the senior representative for the Department of Intergovernmental Affairs in Ottawa for the province. In New Westminster—Coquitlam Conservatives finished a strong second to a strong NDP candidate in Fin Donnelly replacing Dawn Black. The HST and salmon issue proved to be winners in BC allowing the NDP to hold the seat. Even in the Montreal area riding of Hochelaga there was some positive news for Harper. Conservatives gained their share of the vote by 1%. The Liberal vote dropped 6% while the NDP increased 5% allowing them to finish second. There was less than 1000 votes difference between the Liberals and Conservatives. There was less than 2000 votes difference between the NDP and Conservatives. To be fair all three have a long way to go in order to defeat the Bloc who carried 51.2% of total votes. With that said, there doesn't seem to be much difference between Conservative and Liberal support in a riding close to the Montreal Liberal fortress.
Overall it was a good night for Conservatives and the NDP. A bad day for the Bloc Quebecois and Liberals. Bottom line is that the Conservatives are now two seats closer to that majority government. Liberals have clearly not gained any momentum with Ignatieff from where they were under Dion. I have seen a lot of Liberal spin that these by-elections do not matter and no one expected them to win. That may be true but if Dalton McGuinty would have taken that attitude in a recent by-election perhaps John Tory would still be leader and in Queen's Park grilling his government on eHealth today. At some point if Liberals want to win government, you have to gain seats in ridings where you cannot see the CN Tower. Right now the Liberal Party does not look very strong outside of the most urban ridings in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. On the flip side a Conservative majority is so close you can taste it.
Congratulations to Scott Armstrong, Bernard Généreux , Daniel Paillé and Fit Donnelly for their victories last night!
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